Title: Bayesian analysis: A Journey from Outlier to Mainstay

Abstract: This talk will explore the evolution of Bayesian analysis within the pharmaceutical industry and broader scientific community. We will delve into the historical context, tracing the journey from its initial resistance by regulators to its current status as a cornerstone of drug development and scientific research.

Tom Chivers, author of "Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World", will provide a historical overview, emphasising the pivotal role of the Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics in shaping the field. Andy will offer a contemporary perspective, sharing his experiences in pharmaceutical drug development and discussing the industry changes that have facilitated the widespread adoption of Bayesian methods.

Together, we will examine the factors that have contributed to this transformation and explore the ongoing impact of Bayesian analysis on scientific discovery and regulatory decision-making.

Bios:

Tom Chivers is a science writer and author with Semafor. He was named the Association of British Science Writers' science writer of the year in 2020 and has won two "statistical excellence in journalism" awards from the Royal Statistical Society. Everything is Predictable is his third book; his first, The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy, was named a Times book of the year in 2019.

Andy Grieve is a biostatistician with over 40 years experience working in most areas of pharmaceutical R&D where statistics plays a major part: Drug discovery, pre-clinical toxicology, pharmaceutical development, clinical development phases I-IV, marketing, health economics, production. Specialising in applying Bayesian statistics with a particular interest in adaptive designs.