CSSSA - November Webinar

Micro, Meso, Macro: Generic Structures of Social Complexity for Defense Systems Engineering & National Security Wargames

Representing micro, meso, and macro sociotechnical systems and the social complexity of populations in national security wargames is a challenge. Prac-titioners need simulation structure at high fidelity, with reliable data, that can fluidly compose and decompose between these levels based on solid the-ory. This paper introduces three recent enhancements to the emerging-state actor model (E-SAM) simulation that can generalized as methodological blueprints for representing sociotechnical systems for system engineers or social complexity for national security wargames. We demonstrate the methods with three experiments. These include recreating the original ISIS case study in Syria & Iraq 2010-2020, a Ukrainian War hypothetical post-conflict stabilization scenario 2022-2032, and a hypothetical humanitarian aid mission after a major natural disaster in Myanmar in 2028. The experi-ments demonstrate the wide versatility of E-SAM and these simulation components to model different patterns of social complexity.
Keywords: Modeling & Simulation, Social Complexity, Sociotechnical

Bio:

Timothy Clancy is an Assistant Research Scientist at START specializing in studying violence and instability as complex systems. This is a second career for Timothy, the first working for IBM as a consultant that led to his deployment as a civilian to Afghanistan supporting counter-roadside bomb efforts. It was in Afghanistan that Timothy first encountered systems thinking and computer simulation methods such as system dynamics capable of mathematically modeling the wicked mess problems he'd encountered throughout his career. This led to a career change after returning from abroad, and Timothy completed his MSc in Simulation Science & Insurgency Dynamics and then a PhD in the System Dynamics of the Lifecycle of Violence and Instability of Non-State actors, both at WPI. Timothy joined the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland in late 2023. Current research topics include understanding violent radicalization as a system, the terror contagion hypothesis for public mass killings, the emerging-state actor hypothesis for asymmetric and irregular warfare conflicts, and advancing methods for modeling social complexity through computer simulations integrated with AI.