[FREE EVENT] IAU OAO Women in Solar Physics Webinar | Catching the Spark: Predicting Solar Flares Before They Ignite

Catching the Spark: Predicting Solar Flares Before They Ignite

By Dr Marianna Korsos

Solar flares are bright flashes and powerful explosions on the Sun. Predicting these energetic events is essential for protecting satellites, communication systems, and ensuring astronaut safety.

Large solar flares originate from so-called active regions, which are studied across different wavelengths to gain crucial insight into the pre-eruptive conditions that lead to such events. By analysing active regions individually and parameterising their development, we can better understand their physical state and energetic potential. Each physical or proxy parameter offers a unique perspective on the mechanisms driving solar flares and supports short-term prediction.

In recent years, increasing efforts have also focused on predicting these powerful solar events on a medium-term timescale. Medium-term flare prediction aims to identify where magnetically complex active regions, capable of producing flares, are likely to emerge.

In this presentation, we explore how combining medium- and short-term solar flare prediction methods can lead to more accurate and timely space weather forecasts.