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Introduction to Probabilistic Forecasting
Introduction to Probabilistic Forecasting
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What's MCS and how does it work? How is it different from "traditional estimation". What are the prerequisites and how to get started.
Why this session?
When plans collide with reality, single-point (“most likely”) estimates rarely hold up. Probabilistic forecasting gives you a fuller picture—showing the range of outcomes and their likelihood—so you can make calmer, evidence-based decisions about budgets, timelines, capacity and risk.
We will explain how MCS works, how you gather the data, how you apply it and what data you need to run a MCS in your context.