ARINS lecture: The 2024 Northern Ireland general election survey

The 2024 Northern Ireland general election survey: What does it tell us about the constitutional question, Brexit the Windsor Framework, political institutions and societal thawing?

Given by Pete Shirlow and Jon Tonge, the talk will examine data from the longitudinal surveys regarding Westminster Elections in NI. It will challenge some of the myths that nationalist, unionist and neither are in constant disagreement and that that attitudes remain tied, as firmly as they once were, to identity tropes. It also posits how the electorate feel about Brexit and other issues. Overall, the talk, via an evidenced-based account, highlights the new or emergent sociology of Northern Ireland and that issues can at times both agreed and therefore solvable. That is not to say that hard edges and wicked problems do not exist but this longitudinal data collected within a consistent methodology points to growing stability, such as inter-community support for power-sharing/shared disappointment in the work of the NI Assembly) and inter-community agreement.

The talk will begin at 1pm, followed by a light lunch. 

Prof. Peter Shirlow FAcSS is the head of Irish Studies in Liverpool. He is the author and editor of several books including The End of Ulster Loyalism? - a TLS book of the year. He is a regular media contributor both nationally and globally. His work on reconciliation has been deployed in places such as Iraq, Afghanistan, the former Yugoslavia and Libya.

Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool. He has been Principal Investigator of each Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Northern Ireland General Election survey since 2010 and has published books on every UK general election from 1997 to 2019. Among his various publications, Professor Tonge has published books containing membership studies of the Orange Order, the SDLP, DUP, UUP and Alliance, the latter three such studies with Oxford University Press. Professor Tonge recently completed an ESRC-funded project Beyond Unionism and Nationalism in Northern Ireland examining electors beyond the two main traditions. Professor Tonge was Deputy Chair of the Politics REF 2021 panel and served on the 2014 panel. He ran a Leverhulme Trust project examining debates over the minimum voting age, having previously chaired the government’s Youth Citizenship Commission on the issue. In 2024, Professor Tonge was awarded the Political Studies Association’s Sir Isaiah Berlin Prize for ‘outstanding contributions to political studies’.

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