The conference at Queen Elizabeth House in Edinburgh will be co-hosted by the Scottish Council on Global Affairs, and will bring together experts, stakeholders and parties interested in the evolving character of deterrence in the current security environment.

Events of the last 18 months have thrust deterrence and related effects such as assurance and coercion back into the current debate. The security situation in Europe demands immediate attention, but a range of other challenges and issues persist. Building on The Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015 and the 2021 Integrated Review, the 2023 UK Integrated Review Refresh recognised ‘the growing importance of deterrence’. This conference intends to stimulate discussion on a range of salient issues with a focus on representing the next generation of deterrence experts.

Please note that there is now no conference fee for this event. For any questions, please contact daaa@dstl.gov.uk.

AGENDA

Tuesday 14 November

09:00-09:30 | Administrative remarks and welcome

• Nicholas Taylor, DAAA lead, Dstl
• Professor Peter Jackson, Scottish Council of Global Affairs
• Fergus Anderson, Strategic Partnerships lead, Dstl Exploration Division

09:30-10:15 | Keynote address: Professor Phil O’Brien, University of St Andrews

10:15-10:45 | Break

10:45-12:30 | Panel 1: Deterrence Theory and Practice 

• Moderator Professor Peter Jackson
• The Democratisation of Deterrence: The Impact of Individuals and the Private Sector on Strategic Deterrence - Jennifer Bradley, US Strategic Command
• Review of DIME Levers in Immediate Deterrence - Jedidja van Keulen, NATO Joint Forces Command Brunssu
• The Role of the Brazilian Navy in deterrence against non-state actors - Lieutenant Commander Esley Rodrigues, Brazilian Marine
• Internal Revolt as a Factor in Conflict Escalation: Comparative Case Studies - Bernie Victory, US Strategic Command

12:30-13:30 | Lunch 

13:30-14:45 | Panel 2: Deterrence and Evolving Challenges

• Moderator: Dr Patricia Shamai
• Deterrence in the Era of Unconventional Intervention - Professor Andrew Mumford, University of Nottingham
• Deterrence in Cyberspace: Evolving a Response to Evolving Threats - Stewart Bertram, Elemendar
• The Geopolitics of Climate Change in the Arctic: A Case Study of Challenges and Opportunities for the Russian Federation - Ryan Wu, University of Oxford

14:45-15:15 | Break

15:15-16:15 | Panel 3: Innovation & Education

• Moderator: Captain Peter Goodman, British Army Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research
• (Re)Educating Deterrence? Enhancing a Security Community within NATO by Unpacking the Experience of Experts Within the Field - Dr Patricia Shamai, University of Portsmouth
• Deterrence Teaching and Research: The University of Nebraska Approach to Addressing Current and Future Deterrence Challenges - Professor Tyler White, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

16:15-17:00 | Keynote address: Wendin Smith, Director, Security Policy, Political Affairs and Security Policy Division, NATO Headquarters

17:00-17:15 | Closing remarks by Nicholas Taylor, Dstl

By kind permission of the Governor, the conference reception will take place in the Great Hall of Edinburgh Castle, 1800-2000. 

Wednesday 15 November

09:00-09:35 | Administrative remarks by Nicholas Taylor, Dstl

09:35-11:30 | Panel 4: Strategic Culture: understanding our Adversaries and our Allies

• Moderator: Briana Bowen, Center for Anticipatory Intelligence, Utah State University
• Analysis of the Strategic Culture of the UK - James Marsh, Lancaster University
• NATO’s New Front: Alliance Deterrence Goes East - Maria Malksoo, University of Copenhagen
• The Significance of Understanding Strategic Culture - Alejandra June Barrios, University of Glasgow
• Overcoming Cultural Inertia: Using Cultural Topography in Strategic Culture Analysis - Mattias Eken, RAND Europe

11:30-13:00 | Lunch

13:00-14:15 | Panel 5: War Gaming Deterrence

• Moderator: Dr Maggie Dwyer, University of Edinburgh
• Whole-of-Government Collaboration: Educational Nuclear Wargaming and Policy-makers - Brooke Taylor, Defending Our Country, LLC
• Exploring Deterrence in Wargames: Lessons Learned and Paths Forward - Joseph Mroszczyk, US Naval War College
• Simulating the Impact of Disruptive Technology on Nuclear Deterrence and Coercion in Ukraine - Jean-Francois Belanger, University of Waterloo

14:15-14:45 | Break

14:45-15:30 | Keynote address - Dr Andrew Corbett, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London, Joint Services Command and Staff College

15:30-15:45 | Closing remarks and thanks by Nicholas Taylor, Dstl

15:45-16:00 | Conference closes

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