The Art of Uncertainty

The Art of Uncertainty

With Sir David Spiegelhalter

In a world of profound uncertainty we are facing what can only be described as the "conscious awareness of ignorance." It is a landscape where traditional decision-making frameworks fall short.

While we can assess probabilities for well-defined events, we now face "deep" uncertainty: a realm where we cannot even imagine all possible futures. In this space, conventional risk analysis becomes impractical, leaving us vulnerable to the unknown.

To navigate this, we must master a new discipline built on three pillars:

• Humility: Maintaining a radical openness to unanticipated events.
• Imagination: Envisioning potential futures, especially the adverse scenarios we often ignore.
• Resilience: Building the strength to recover and thrive after unexpected shocks.

David Spiegelhalter explores how to face an unpredictable future - not by attempting to eliminate uncertainty, but by developing a profound capacity to adapt and recover when the unexpected inevitably occurs.

Bio

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge. He is a regular media commentator on statistical issues, and was very busy over the Covid crisis. His bestselling book, The Art of Statistics, was published in 2019, and The Art of Uncertainty in 2024. His career highlights include appearing on Desert Island Discs in 2022, and in 2011 coming 7 th in an episode of BBC1’s Winter Wipeout. He was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005, awarded an OBE in 2006, and knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics. He was President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-2018, and has been a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority since 2020.

Venue
Strongroom Bar
120-124 Curtain Road
Shoreditch
London
EC2A 3SQ

Event Running Time:
Doors from 7pm
Introduction: 7:25pm
Lecture: 7:30pm
Q&A: 8:00pm